As Americans fire up their grills this summer, they may want to brace for some sticker shock at the butcher’s counter. Beef prices are heating up—and not just on the barbecue.
According to the latest Consumer Price Index data, beef and veal prices have spiked 8.6% over the past year. Ground beef alone jumped 9.9%, while beef roasts and steaks climbed 9.5% and 6.3% respectively.
At the heart of the issue? A dwindling cattle supply that dates back generations.
“We’re looking at the smallest herd since the 1950s. It’s wild,” said Nate Rempe, President and CEO of Omaha Steaks, in an interview with Fox Business. As of January 1, 2025, the U.S. counted just 86.7 million cattle and calves—the lowest since 1951, per USDA data.
The supply shortage, Rempe notes, isn’t something a quick fix or policy tweak can solve. “You can’t just flip a switch or change a tariff,” he explained. “Rebuilding the herd takes time. We’re likely not seeing relief until Q3 of 2026.”
Meanwhile, the broader grocery aisle isn’t offering much comfort. The food index is up a whopping 26% over five years, with another 2.9% increase forecasted by the USDA for 2025.
Sure, headline inflation has cooled from its 9.1% peak in 2022, but the essentials—like food and shelter—are still biting into household budgets.
Still, there’s a silver lining. Consumers who adapt—whether by rethinking their diets, budgeting smarter, or investing in inflation-resistant assets—tend to weather the storm better.
As the beef market simmers, perhaps it’s time to think beyond the steakhouse and onto new pastures.
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