Scotland’s meat industry is voicing concerns over the rise of imports from countries with trade deals signed by the UK, potentially threatening the stability of the local food sector.
Quality Meat Scotland (QMS) warns that imports from countries like New Zealand, Australia, and Brazil could disrupt the Scottish agricultural landscape.
At the Royal Highland Show in Edinburgh, farming unions acknowledged the benefits of new trade markets but QMS called for a broader look at the cumulative impact of these deals rather than examining them individually.
While export opportunities, such as beef demand from the US due to droughts and low livestock numbers, are on the horizon, QMS Chief Executive Sarah Millar emphasized that boosting Scottish cattle numbers is essential to meet this potential.
Australia was the first to sign a post-Brexit deal with the UK in 2021, but by May 2023, farmers raised alarms about the perceived undervaluation of their markets.
Since then, the UK has secured trade agreements with nearly 70 countries, including a renewed deal with the EU last month.
QMS forecasts that 79,000 additional cows will be needed by 2030 to replace imports with home-grown beef, highlighting the delicate balance needed between trade and domestic production. Millar told BBC Scotland, “We welcome two-way trade, but it must be done on fair terms.”
Despite concerns, opportunities in new markets are also emerging. Since 2023, Scotch lamb has been exported to the United Arab Emirates, but Millar maintains that the EU remains the most critical export destination.
Any efforts to facilitate smoother access to European markets would be warmly received.
In another positive development, Scotland’s arable farmers are optimistic about the recent trade deal with India, which halved excise duties on whisky imports.
The Scotch Whisky Association predicts this could drive a £1bn increase in exports over the next five years, potentially creating 1,200 new UK jobs.
Barley growers, such as Neil White, are hopeful this will stimulate demand, allowing farms to expand their barley production. White explained, “If the premium’s there, we could grow a lot more. It’s a cheap crop to grow with a strong local market.”
The EU-UK trade agreement offers further optimism, particularly for small businesses, by reducing border red tape and re-establishing key trade routes.
However, concerns remain over lost market opportunities, such as the £75m loss in seed potato exports to the EU over the last five years.
NFU Scotland supports the EU-UK reset but cautions against being aligned with EU regulations without a voice in their formation.
Jonnie Hall of NFU Scotland stressed that while recovering lost markets is vital, the government must ensure that all imports to the UK adhere to the same high standards as local products, including the continued ban on hormone-treated US beef. He added, “We need more clarity to fully understand the implications.”
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