Beef is getting pricier—and it is not just your imagination. The USDA projects beef and veal prices could rise by over 6.3% in 2025, driven by a shrinking cattle supply and steady consumer demand.
At Cannon Valley Ranch in Minnesota, Bruce Waugh has been in the cattle game for 25 years. He sees the problem firsthand.
“There’s no black-and-white answer,” he says. “A lot of dynamics are at play.” Chief among them: the U.S. cow herd has shrunk to levels not seen since the 1950s, yet the country now feeds a population double that size. That mismatch is straining the supply chain—and prices are catching up.
Add in droughts drying up feed, aging ranchers hanging up their hats, and sky-high startup costs pushing away the next generation, and the result is a beef industry running lean. “The average rancher is well into his 60s,” Waugh notes. “Starting new is financially mind-boggling.”
Waugh breaks down the beef business into three parts: packers, feedlots, and cow-calf operations. His ranch focuses on the latter, raising Angus and Akaushi cattle.
Of the trio, only cow-calf producers are seeing decent margins, he says. Packers and feeders, on the other hand, are being squeezed—forced to buy cattle at record prices while retail prices swallow their profits.
As summer grilling season heats up, Waugh does not see relief on the horizon. “It’s a slow build and a slow wind down,” he warns. “This pricing dynamic could stick around for another 18 to 24 months.”
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