Beef prices have been steadily climbing, fueled by a growing demand and a nationwide shortage of cattle.
As of July, U.S. beef cow numbers have dropped to 28.7 million—the lowest in over 70 years. “We’re seeing fewer cattle, which translates to less beef on the market,” said Scott Clawson, an agricultural economist.
Clawson notes that cattle inventories are at their lowest in generations, a trend driven by multiple factors, including drought.
“Without favorable conditions, it’s tough to grow a cow herd,” said Hugh Aljoe, ranch director at the Noble Research Institute.
“Better conditions mean more grass, and that’s when we can increase cattle numbers.”
With prices rising, ranchers face difficult choices. “The dilemma is whether to hold onto more females for breeding or sell them. With prices as high as they are, it’s a tough call,” Aljoe explained.
Many ranchers are opting to keep enough cattle to maintain their herds, rather than boosting supply for the broader market. This tight supply has pushed grocery prices up by 12% over the past year.
Clawson adds that ground beef, the most commonly purchased cut, has seen particularly sharp price increases. “We’ve seen this spike in the past few months. It’s hitting customers where it hurts,” he said.
Unfortunately, recovery is slow. “Building production back up means keeping heifers and expanding the herd—a process that takes time,” Clawson concluded.
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