Global Beef Market Braces for Tight Supplies in 2025

The global beef market is facing its first significant supply contraction since the pandemic, according to the latest RaboResearch report.

Herd reductions in major beef-producing countries, including Brazil and the United States, are set to drive supply declines in 2025. Additionally, cuts in production across China, Europe, and New Zealand will amplify the global impact.

Senior Animal Protein Analyst Angus Gidley-Baird noted that this downturn will reshape trade flows. “We will see Australian beef producers increasingly depend on exports to absorb stronger domestic production, while Brazil will see global markets as a better demand opportunity compared to lackluster domestic demand.”

Shifting Prices Amid Contractions

North American cattle prices have remained high for nearly two years due to shrinking herds and strong consumer demand.

However, other regions like South America and Oceania have experienced relatively lower prices—until now. As global supply tightens, these regions are witnessing a shift, with firming cattle prices creating ripple effects in international trade.

Weather conditions also play a pivotal role. U.S. producers are waiting for improved rainfall to rebuild herds, while Brazilian production is slowing due to rain delays.

Meanwhile, Australia’s beef production has remained stable, supported by adequate precipitation. Still, potential dryness could disrupt its output.

Weather Trends and the Year Ahead

Looking forward, weather patterns could significantly influence production. The latest El Niño Southern Oscillation models predict a La Niña phase extending into Q1 2025, transitioning to neutral conditions by midyear.

This forecast is favorable for Australia but offers little immediate relief for U.S. and Brazilian producers.

As global supplies shrink, consumers may feel the pinch at checkout. However, shifting trade dynamics and adjustments in production could help stabilize markets over time. The coming year will test the resilience of beef producers and the adaptability of global markets.

The global beef market is set for tight supplies in 2025. Stay informed with the latest trade and pricing trends by visiting our homepage.